will post random picks and odds over the next couple months
Feel free to post stuff that you deem interesting but not quite worthy of its own thread in here
The 49ers’ season came to a disappointing end in the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia, but let’s not forget that the loss required the team literally running out of quarterbacks during the game. Prior to that, the Niners were the hottest team in football, ripping off 12 straight wins (including postseason) in a regular season that saw them finish 13-4.
Brock Purdy will be the starter for this team when he’s ready, which will either be to start the season, or in the very early going. But I think the uncertainty at QB has the perception of this team a little down, which gives us a good division price in a very weak division.
The NFC is as soft as ever, leaving the likes of the Eagles and Niners among the favorites to be in contention yet again, with outside contenders like the Cowboys sitting at +600. Beyond that, we’ve reached the point where teams like the Lions sit with the fourth-best odds to win the NFC at +1000.
San Francisco’s win total sits at 10.5 with heavy juice (-145) to the over. While I lean over there, obviously, I think at a similar price I’d have much more confidence in the Niners winning the division.
Win total markets tell us we can almost certainly write off half the division out of the gates. The Cardinals have a win total of 4.5, which is the lowest in the NFL. New coaching, no Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins, along with arguably the worst defense in the NFL … this team isn’t going anywhere, hence the 25-1 price just to win the NFC West.
The Rams’ win total is set at 6.5, and while the Matthew Stafford experiment did achieve the ultimate goal, it seems like the wheels immediately fell off. While the +800 price tag may look appealing to some, this roster proved last season it’s nowhere near what it was two seasons ago, despite whatever kind of fantasy numbers Cooper Kupp may put up.
That leaves us with the Seahawks, who surprised many of us last season with a 9-8 record and a Wild Card appearance (where they were smoked by the Niners). Seattle built upon that season with an exciting draft class, but won’t be able to sneak up on anyone this season. Seattle also has some tough road games on the schedule, playing at the Lions, Giants, Bengals, Ravens and Cowboys.
While the 49ers have a very similar schedule, they get all four of the teams in that bunch that they play at home. San Fran does travel to Minnesota, Cleveland and Philly, but should be favored in two of those games.
The Niners should be favored in all six division games, and while 6-0 might be wishful thinking, it’s in the cards. A 5-1 division record feels more likely, and if they are able to beat Seattle both times (they did it three times last year), it’d go a very long way towards coasting to a division title.
While QB play could be an issue at times, this offense knows how to play through it. Running the ball will remain a strength, and the dominant defense returns. I feel this should be priced much closer to -200 for the 49ers to repeat as division champions (many other books are priced much closer to that, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a great price here), so I’ll gladly lay the -150.
Feel free to post stuff that you deem interesting but not quite worthy of its own thread in here
NFC West Division Winner: San Francisco 49ers (-150)
3-units
The 49ers’ season came to a disappointing end in the NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia, but let’s not forget that the loss required the team literally running out of quarterbacks during the game. Prior to that, the Niners were the hottest team in football, ripping off 12 straight wins (including postseason) in a regular season that saw them finish 13-4.
Brock Purdy will be the starter for this team when he’s ready, which will either be to start the season, or in the very early going. But I think the uncertainty at QB has the perception of this team a little down, which gives us a good division price in a very weak division.
The NFC is as soft as ever, leaving the likes of the Eagles and Niners among the favorites to be in contention yet again, with outside contenders like the Cowboys sitting at +600. Beyond that, we’ve reached the point where teams like the Lions sit with the fourth-best odds to win the NFC at +1000.
San Francisco’s win total sits at 10.5 with heavy juice (-145) to the over. While I lean over there, obviously, I think at a similar price I’d have much more confidence in the Niners winning the division.
Win total markets tell us we can almost certainly write off half the division out of the gates. The Cardinals have a win total of 4.5, which is the lowest in the NFL. New coaching, no Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins, along with arguably the worst defense in the NFL … this team isn’t going anywhere, hence the 25-1 price just to win the NFC West.
The Rams’ win total is set at 6.5, and while the Matthew Stafford experiment did achieve the ultimate goal, it seems like the wheels immediately fell off. While the +800 price tag may look appealing to some, this roster proved last season it’s nowhere near what it was two seasons ago, despite whatever kind of fantasy numbers Cooper Kupp may put up.
That leaves us with the Seahawks, who surprised many of us last season with a 9-8 record and a Wild Card appearance (where they were smoked by the Niners). Seattle built upon that season with an exciting draft class, but won’t be able to sneak up on anyone this season. Seattle also has some tough road games on the schedule, playing at the Lions, Giants, Bengals, Ravens and Cowboys.
While the 49ers have a very similar schedule, they get all four of the teams in that bunch that they play at home. San Fran does travel to Minnesota, Cleveland and Philly, but should be favored in two of those games.
The Niners should be favored in all six division games, and while 6-0 might be wishful thinking, it’s in the cards. A 5-1 division record feels more likely, and if they are able to beat Seattle both times (they did it three times last year), it’d go a very long way towards coasting to a division title.
While QB play could be an issue at times, this offense knows how to play through it. Running the ball will remain a strength, and the dominant defense returns. I feel this should be priced much closer to -200 for the 49ers to repeat as division champions (many other books are priced much closer to that, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a great price here), so I’ll gladly lay the -150.
